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Ford Stock Declines 9% Since Q3 Results: What Should Investors Do?
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Last week, U.S. legacy automaker Ford (F - Free Report) released its third-quarter 2024 results. The company’s net income during the quarter plunged 25% to $900 million, largely due to losses in its electric vehicle (EV) business. Discouragingly, the company also cut its full-year 2024 EBIT forecast. It now expects the metric to be around $10 billion, at the lower end of the previously guided range of $10-$12 billion. Since the results, Ford shares have slid 8.8%.
Ford Motor Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Stay up-to-date with the quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Meanwhile, Ford’s closest peer General Motors (GM - Free Report) witnessed a 6% increase in its stock price since it delivered a stellar third-quarter show and raised its full-year 2024 guidance for the third time this year.
With shares of Ford falling around 9% in the past week, shares are down 17% over the past six months, significantly underperforming the industry, sector, S&P 500 and its key competitor.
6-Month Price Performance Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Does the stock price decline represent a buying opportunity? Or are there enough near-term concerns to give the stock a miss at the moment? Let’s delve into the company’s fundamentals, growth drivers and challenges to see if the stock is worth your money at the moment.
Ford Pro Unit: A Bright Spot Amid Uncertainty
Despite challenges, Ford's Pro unit stands out as a robust growth engine. This division integrates Ford's commercial vehicle lineup with a comprehensive suite of software and repair services. The third-quarter results showcased strong performance, with revenue and volume growth of 13% and 9% year over year, respectively. EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) for the segment reached $1.8 billion, a slight increase from $1.7 billion in the same period last year. This is the most lucrative segment of the company.
Subscriptions to Ford Pro software increased 30% in the September quarter, while mobile repair orders fulfilled by its 2,400-vehicle service fleet rose 70%. Ford Pro's software subscriptions and repair services contribute around 13% of the segmental EBIT, with expectations to reach 20% by 2026.
The combination of Ford Pro's strong order books, increasing demand signals and the successful launch of the Super Duty sets the stage for a highly promising future for the Ford Pro segment. The company expects EBIT from the Ford Pro unit to be around $9 billion (up from $7.2 billion in 2023) thanks to continued strength across all three domains: vehicles, software and physical services. Ford’s increasing focus on software technology and services business will be a major driver.
High Dividend Yield to Attract Income Investors
Ford has a high dividend yield of more than 5%, way better than the S&P 500’s yield of 1.24% on average. The company targets distributions of 40-50% of FCF going forward, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder returns. This high yield provides some buffer against the stock’s volatility and could entice those seeking steady income amid uncertain market conditions.
While Ford Pro demonstrates promising growth, the company's Model e segment—its dedicated EV business—continues to struggle. The third quarter saw an 11% year-over-year drop in wholesale volumes and a significant 33% revenue decline. Loss before interest and taxes was $1.22 billion. The challenges for Ford’s EV division stem from both internal and external pressure. The company faces stiff competition, pricing pressure and significant costs associated with new-generation EV development.
After having incurred losses of $4.7 billion in its EV business, Ford anticipates loss to widen to $5 billion this year, exacerbated by ongoing pricing pressure and increased investments in next-generation EVs.
Warranty and Other Cost Pressure to Clip F Margins
Ford’s struggle to manage warranty expenses has been another sore spot. The automaker’s quality issues, especially with older models, have led to elevated warranty costs. Despite efforts to address these issues, Ford has indicated it could take up to 18 months before substantial cost improvements are realized.
Higher inflation, particularly affecting Ford’s joint venture in Turkey, is set to exacerbate cost pressure. Increased material prices for the popular Transit van in Europe are likely to erode margins.
Amid these cost headwinds, Ford cut its overall EBIT forecast for 2024. The company expects EBIT from Ford Blue unit to decline from $7.5 billion in 2023 to $5 billion this year due to higher product manufacturing and warranty costs.
The automaker's CFO, John Lawler, acknowledged that while Ford achieved a $2 billion reduction in material and manufacturing costs, these improvements have been largely offset by inflation and warranty-related expenses. These factors have curtailed Ford’s ability to achieve record financial performance this year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 and 2025 EPS calls for a decline of 9.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Better to Avoid Ford Stock Now
While Ford’s Pro division is a beacon of strength and the company’s high dividend yield could appeal to income investors, there are too many challenges at play. The persistent losses in the EV division, ongoing warranty and cost issues and heightened competition create a tough environment for growth and profitability. The broader automotive market is also seeing signs of weakening demand and rising inventory levels, which pose additional challenges for Ford.
Given these headwinds and the uncertain timeline for a turnaround, Ford may not be a safe bet now, even though it is undervalued and carries a Value Score of A. Ford’s stock may continue to face pressure as it grapples with operational challenges. For now, it may be wise to hold off on investing in Ford until clearer signs of sustainable growth and cost control emerge.
Ford currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Image: Bigstock
Ford Stock Declines 9% Since Q3 Results: What Should Investors Do?
Last week, U.S. legacy automaker Ford (F - Free Report) released its third-quarter 2024 results. The company’s net income during the quarter plunged 25% to $900 million, largely due to losses in its electric vehicle (EV) business. Discouragingly, the company also cut its full-year 2024 EBIT forecast. It now expects the metric to be around $10 billion, at the lower end of the previously guided range of $10-$12 billion. Since the results, Ford shares have slid 8.8%.
Ford Motor Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Ford Motor Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Ford Motor Company Quote
Stay up-to-date with the quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Meanwhile, Ford’s closest peer General Motors (GM - Free Report) witnessed a 6% increase in its stock price since it delivered a stellar third-quarter show and raised its full-year 2024 guidance for the third time this year.
With shares of Ford falling around 9% in the past week, shares are down 17% over the past six months, significantly underperforming the industry, sector, S&P 500 and its key competitor.
6-Month Price Performance Comparison
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Does the stock price decline represent a buying opportunity? Or are there enough near-term concerns to give the stock a miss at the moment? Let’s delve into the company’s fundamentals, growth drivers and challenges to see if the stock is worth your money at the moment.
Ford Pro Unit: A Bright Spot Amid Uncertainty
Despite challenges, Ford's Pro unit stands out as a robust growth engine. This division integrates Ford's commercial vehicle lineup with a comprehensive suite of software and repair services. The third-quarter results showcased strong performance, with revenue and volume growth of 13% and 9% year over year, respectively. EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) for the segment reached $1.8 billion, a slight increase from $1.7 billion in the same period last year. This is the most lucrative segment of the company.
Subscriptions to Ford Pro software increased 30% in the September quarter, while mobile repair orders fulfilled by its 2,400-vehicle service fleet rose 70%. Ford Pro's software subscriptions and repair services contribute around 13% of the segmental EBIT, with expectations to reach 20% by 2026.
The combination of Ford Pro's strong order books, increasing demand signals and the successful launch of the Super Duty sets the stage for a highly promising future for the Ford Pro segment. The company expects EBIT from the Ford Pro unit to be around $9 billion (up from $7.2 billion in 2023) thanks to continued strength across all three domains: vehicles, software and physical services. Ford’s increasing focus on software technology and services business will be a major driver.
High Dividend Yield to Attract Income Investors
Ford has a high dividend yield of more than 5%, way better than the S&P 500’s yield of 1.24% on average. The company targets distributions of 40-50% of FCF going forward, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder returns. This high yield provides some buffer against the stock’s volatility and could entice those seeking steady income amid uncertain market conditions.
Ford Motor Company Dividend Yield (TTM)
Ford Motor Company dividend-yield-ttm | Ford Motor Company Quote
Ford Model e: A Persistent Drag
While Ford Pro demonstrates promising growth, the company's Model e segment—its dedicated EV business—continues to struggle. The third quarter saw an 11% year-over-year drop in wholesale volumes and a significant 33% revenue decline. Loss before interest and taxes was $1.22 billion. The challenges for Ford’s EV division stem from both internal and external pressure. The company faces stiff competition, pricing pressure and significant costs associated with new-generation EV development.
After having incurred losses of $4.7 billion in its EV business, Ford anticipates loss to widen to $5 billion this year, exacerbated by ongoing pricing pressure and increased investments in next-generation EVs.
Warranty and Other Cost Pressure to Clip F Margins
Ford’s struggle to manage warranty expenses has been another sore spot. The automaker’s quality issues, especially with older models, have led to elevated warranty costs. Despite efforts to address these issues, Ford has indicated it could take up to 18 months before substantial cost improvements are realized.
Higher inflation, particularly affecting Ford’s joint venture in Turkey, is set to exacerbate cost pressure. Increased material prices for the popular Transit van in Europe are likely to erode margins.
Amid these cost headwinds, Ford cut its overall EBIT forecast for 2024. The company expects EBIT from Ford Blue unit to decline from $7.5 billion in 2023 to $5 billion this year due to higher product manufacturing and warranty costs.
The automaker's CFO, John Lawler, acknowledged that while Ford achieved a $2 billion reduction in material and manufacturing costs, these improvements have been largely offset by inflation and warranty-related expenses. These factors have curtailed Ford’s ability to achieve record financial performance this year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 and 2025 EPS calls for a decline of 9.4% and 2.5%, respectively.
Better to Avoid Ford Stock Now
While Ford’s Pro division is a beacon of strength and the company’s high dividend yield could appeal to income investors, there are too many challenges at play. The persistent losses in the EV division, ongoing warranty and cost issues and heightened competition create a tough environment for growth and profitability. The broader automotive market is also seeing signs of weakening demand and rising inventory levels, which pose additional challenges for Ford.
Given these headwinds and the uncertain timeline for a turnaround, Ford may not be a safe bet now, even though it is undervalued and carries a Value Score of A. Ford’s stock may continue to face pressure as it grapples with operational challenges. For now, it may be wise to hold off on investing in Ford until clearer signs of sustainable growth and cost control emerge.
Ford currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.